14 Jan

2024 NBA picks, Jan. 10 best bets by proven model

The New Orleans Pelicans aim to maintain a hot streak on Wednesday evening in San Francisco. The Pelicans have won six straight road games as they visit the Golden State Warriors for a nationally televised matchup. New Orleans is 22-15 overall and 10-7 away from home this season, while Golden State is 17-19 overall and 11-10 at Chase Center. Zion Williamson (quad) and Jose Alvarado (illness) are listed as questionable for New Orleans. Draymond Green (reconditioning), Chris Paul (hand), and Gary Payton II (hamstring) are out for Golden State.

For this game, SportsLine consensus lists the Pelicans as 2-point favorites, and tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 234 in the latest Pelicans vs. Warriors odds. Before making any Warriors vs. Pelicans picks, you need to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model enters Week 12 of the 2023-24 NBA season on a sizzling 112-62 roll on all top-rated NBA picks dating back to last season, returning well over $4,000. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Warriors vs. Pelicans and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting lines for Pelicans vs. Warriors:

Warriors vs. Pelicans spread: Pelicans -2
Warriors vs. Pelicans over/under: 234 points
Warriors vs. Pelicans money line: Pelicans -134, Warriors +113
New Orleans: The Pelicans are 9-6-1 against the spread in road games
Golden State: The Warriors are 8-13 against the spread in home games
Warriors vs. Pelicans picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Pelicans can cover
New Orleans has intriguingly strong defensive metrics, and the Pelicans are allowing only 111.6 points per 100 possessions, ranking in the top six of the NBA. New Orleans is also in the top six in both opponent field goal percentage (45.9%) and opponent 3-point percentage (33.7%). The Pelicans create more than eight steals per game, and New Orleans is firmly in the top 10 in fast break points allowed (13.5 per game) and second-chance points allowed (13.6 per game). Golden State is averaging 14.8 turnovers per game on offense, and the Warriors are averaging the fewest points in the paint (43.8 per game) and fast break points (10.4 per game) in the NBA.

On offense, the Pelicans have top-tier marks in field goal percentage (48.4%) and 3-point percentage (37.9%), and New Orleans is generating almost 25 free throw attempts per game. New Orleans also has impressive numbers on the road, including an active six-game road winning streak. In those six wins, the Pelicans have out-scored opponents by 20.0 points per 100 possessions, leaning on a dynamic offensive performance. The Pelicans scored almost 1.3 points per possession in those six games, posting a 66.5% true shooting mark. See which team to pick here.

Why the Warriors can cover
The Warriors have the benefit of home-court advantage and the presence of the best player on the floor in Stephen Curry. The two-time NBA MVP is averaging 27.1 points per game this season, including a 42-point eruption against the Pelicans in the first head-to-head battle of the campaign. Curry made 15 of 22 shots from the field and 7 of 13 attempts from 3-point range in that game, and he is the best shooter in the league. Curry leads the NBA in 3-pointers (155) with a top-three mark in free throw accuracy (92%), and he is a gravitational force to make life difficult for any opposing defense.

The Warriors are in the top four of the NBA in 3-pointers (14.8 per game), and Golden State makes waves on the offensive glass. Golden State is securing 32.3% of available offensive rebounds, averaging 15.9 second-chance points per game. The Warriors are also in the top ten of the league in assists (28.1 per game) and free throw accuracy (79.4%). On defense, Golden State boasts top-ten metrics in assists allowed (25.4 per game), defensive rebound rate (71.9%) and 3-point accuracy allowed (35.0%) this season. The Warriors also held the Pelicans to 1.02 points per possession in the first meeting. See which team to pick here.

How to make Pelicans vs. Warriors picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 237 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.

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